U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Home > Economic News Release > Employment Situation
2. 資料:
(1) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf ((PDF,才有圖可以看))
(2) 歷史:Nonfarm Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted, ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2002 | 130591 | 130445 | 130421 | 130337 | 130328 | 130375 | 130275 | 130264 | 130209 | 130330 | 130338 | 130175 | |
2003 | 130270 | 130111 | 129898 | 129849 | 129840 | 129840 | 129865 | 129820 | 129929 | 130126 | 130140 | 130259 | |
2004 | 130421 | 130465 | 130802 | 131051 | 131361 | 131442 | 131488 | 131610 | 131771 | 132119 | 132182 | 132316 | |
2005 | 132453 | 132693 | 132834 | 133194 | 133364 | 133607 | 133981 | 134174 | 134240 | 134320 | 134654 | 134814 | |
2006 | 135097 | 135413 | 135696 | 135877 | 135891 | 135967 | 136176 | 136359 | 136516 | 136507 | 136711 | 136882 | |
2007 | 137118 | 137211 | 137401 | 137473 | 137612 | 137687 | 137647 | 137629 | 137702 | 137781 | 137893 | 137982 | |
2008 | 138023 | 137939 | 137844 | 137636 | 137446 | 137248 | 137038 | 136764 | 136332 | 135843 | 135040 | 134379 | |
2009 | 133561 | 132837 | 132038 | 131346 | 130985 | 130503 | 130164 | 129933 | 129734 | 129532 | 129490 | 129319 | |
2010 | 129279 | 129244 | 129433 | 129672 | 130188 | 130021 | 129963 | 129912 | 129885 | 130105 | 130226 | 130346 | |
2011 | 130456 | 130676 | 130922 | 131173 | 131227 | 131311 | 131407 | 131492 | 131694 | 131806 | 131963 | 132186 | |
2012 | 132461 | 132720 | 132863 | 132931 | 133018 | 133082 | 133245 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Survey
更長的歷史:http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS/
((Home > FRED® Economic Data > Categories > Population, Employment, & Labor Markets > Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey) > Total Nonfarm))
3. 摘要:
(1) Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent.
(2) 郭恭克:「最重要的經濟指標就是非農就業人口,它是最穩定的景氣指標,此外,非農就業人口與美股相關係數為 0.924,很適合投資人判斷景氣走勢。」
4. 延伸閱讀:
(1) 實證:http://www.wretch.cc/blog/JaguarCSIA/16236500
(2) 實證:http://www.wretch.cc/blog/JaguarCSIA/16231218 ((非農業就業人口每月增加數,若能連續大於20萬人,對美國就業市場才是景氣穩定擴張應有的水準))((真的嗎?))
(3) 郭恭克評論例子:「非農業就業人口增加數不如市場預期,但仍為連續第19個月的持續增加,美國就業市場仍處於改善之中。每周平均工作時數仍維持在接近最高檔位置,顯示顧主仍以現有人力進行加班因應產能可能的擴充需求;未來只要美國經濟持續復甦,則美國就業市場應仍可持續改善。」非農就業人口持續增加代表改善,不代表景氣擴張。此外,景氣擴散前的景氣復甦可由每周平均工作時數看出端倪。
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF ALL EMPLOYEES Seasonally Adjusted
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | 34.4 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.7 | ||
2007 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.6 |
2008 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.7 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.1 |
2009 | 34.1 | 34.0 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.9 | 33.9 |
2010 | 34.0 | 33.9 | 34.0 | 34.1 | 34.2 | 34.1 | 34.2 | 34.2 | 34.2 | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.3 |
2011 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
2012 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
(4) 景氣衰退還是復甦,看什麼指標最準?
- 景氣復甦,不能看失業率和非農就業人口,看工業生產指數及產能利用率最準。
- 景氣衰退,不能看工業生產指數及產能利用率,看非農就業人口。失業率由於計算及調整問題,所以比較不穩定。
沒有留言:
張貼留言