經濟指標 -- 消費與通貨膨脹循環

《獵豹財務長投資羅盤》



複習一下消費與通貨膨脹循環。有兩個循環：

(1) 存貨水準 => 工業生產指數 => 製造業每週工時 + 申請失業救濟金 => 個人所得 => 消費者信心指數 => 零售銷售金額 => 存貨/銷售比率

(2) 存貨水準 => 工業生產指數 => 生產者信心指數 (PPI) => 消費者物價指數 (CPI) => 消費者信心指數



(A) 個人所得

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Home > Subject Areas > Current Employment Statistics > Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted > Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey ((National))

(B) 消費者信心指數

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
• The Conference Board: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®
• 台灣經濟發展研究中心：消費者信心指數
• 台灣綜合研究院：消費者信心指數調查報告

(C) 零售銷售金額

• Department of Commerce: Home › Economic Indicators › Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services › Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

(D) 存貨/銷售比率、存貨水準

• Department of Commerce: Home › Economic Indicators › Monthly Wholesale Trade › Monthly Wholesale Trade
• 歷史資料：http://www.census.gov/wholesale/

(E) 工業生產指數

• http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current
• http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO

(F) 製造業每週工時

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Home > Subject Areas > Current Employment Statistics > Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

(G) 申請失業救濟金

• Unemployment Insurance, Employment & Training Administration (ETA) - U.S. Department of Labor: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp
• 歷史：http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp (N.S.A = Not Seasonally Adjusted，S.F = Seasonal Factor，S.A = Seasonal Adjusted)

(H) PPI

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ppi/

(I) CPI

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
• St. Louis Fed: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL?cid=9
• 行政院主計處: 首頁 > 出版品 > 統計電子書 > 物價指數